How the California Megadrought Is Affecting Food Prices

The West is at present going through its worst megadrought in at the least 1,200 years. This has precipitated a number of states to impose water restrictions, and it doesn’t seem like issues are going to get higher any time quickly. Lake Mead’s water provide, which offers water to Arizona, Nevada, and a part of Mexico, is at present at its lowest degree for the reason that Hoover Dam was accomplished in 1936. Other reservoirs from Lake Powell to many in California have adopted go well with.

All of that is inflicting main issues for farmers in California, Arizona, and past. California produces “over a third of the country’s vegetables and two-thirds of the country’s fruits and nuts” and far of its dairy merchandise, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. That means what’s taking place within the West goes to have implications for the complete nation. If we don’t transfer shortly to deal with local weather change and the way we handle water sources, this might change into an issue that solely will get more durable to handle yearly.

As farmers battle for water, a number of varieties of meals might improve in worth as a consequence of this megadrought. Timothy Richards, an agricultural economist at Arizona State University, mentioned we’re already beginning to see this occur.

“So far we’re seeing avocado prices up 10%,” Richards mentioned. “All of the usual culprits that are water-intensive in California agriculture are starting to increase in prices.”

Richards mentioned he additionally expects the value of lettuce and tree nuts like almonds and pistachios to go up. Growing tree nuts is extremely water-intensive, and a few California farmers are already ripping out their almond bushes, which is a giant deal contemplating it takes about 5 years only for a tree to provide sufficient almonds to begin promoting them, not to mention flip a revenue.

“When you grow those tree crops, that’s a 25-year investment,” Richards mentioned. “Farmers are buying as much water as they can find to feed those crops, because if they lose water for those crops, they lose all of that investment.”

That might have long-term impacts on almond costs given the funding timetable. Other meals gadgets might see short-term worth will increase as properly. California produces 100% of U.S.’s sushi rice, an especially water intensive crop. Due to the drought, it seems its price can also be going to extend. Richards mentioned dairy costs could also be affected as a consequence of the truth that the alfalfa dairy cows eat requires a lot water to develop. It’s not simply dairy cows both. Levan Elbakidze, an affiliate professor of agriculture at West Virginia University, mentioned hay costs have elevated considerably, which might have an effect on beef costs contemplating that’s what the cattle eat. He agreed that lettuce and almond costs will seemingly improve.

Elbakidze mentioned how a lot meals costs will improve will depend upon how a lot we are able to import and at what worth we are able to import these items. We may additionally want to contemplate shifting the place we develop issues. He mentioned California grows strawberries, for instance, however so does Florida. The latter might improve strawberry manufacturing to maintain them inexpensive and available, blunting a number of the impacts of the drought.

“If this lasts for years, we will see adjustments in our production practices,” Ebdakidze says.

Due to the very fact Lake Mead’s water provide is so low, a very good 12 months of rain and snowpack wouldn’t be sufficient to carry it again above drought ranges. He mentioned he believes it might require about three moist years to make that occur.

Just as necessary because the impacts of drought we’re seeing relating to record-low reservoirs is how farmers understand the drought itself. Richards mentioned farmers ripping out almond bushes seems to point out they see this as a long-term drawback, which implies there might be vital results on the U.S. meals system no matter how lengthy the megadrought lasts.

“If they start ripping out those things that are high water use, long-term investments like tree fruits and tree nuts and things like that, that will be the sign that this is a really different sort of drought and that growers expect this thing to be ongoing,” Richards mentioned. “That’s a fundamental change in the structure of California agriculture and, by that token, American agriculture.”

Considering the megadrought is a results of the results of local weather change and local weather change isn’t going wherever, it appears seemingly this drawback might be a long-term one. Not solely are farmers having to take care of the drought, however local weather change can also be inflicting wildfires within the West to worsen yearly, threatening to burn down some crops and make others unsalvageable due to smoke damage. (It additionally creates dangerous conditions for farmworkers.)

Farmers are exploring other possibilities, together with dry-farming methods, that depend on much less water and enhancing effectivity via different means. Bringing down the price of desalination—turning saltwater from the ocean into freshwater—is a extra long-term technique to assist farmers. But within the meantime, farmers within the West must make robust selections about what they will afford to maintain watering and the way they will use water as sustainably as potential.

Thor Benson is an impartial journalist who has contributed to Gizmodo, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, NBC News and lots of different publications.