The Kremlin has abruptly ended Dmitry Rogozin’s tenure as the top of Russia’s area company, forcing us to surprise if the introduction of a brand new area chief would possibly change Roscosmos and the way in which it handles different area companies. Sadly, there’s good cause for pessimism.

As British rockers The Who as soon as sang: “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” This might effectively be the case on the Russian area company, the place earlier right now the Kremlin introduced the firing of Rogozin, who was changed by former Russian deputy prime minister Yury Borisov. It’s onerous to understand how Borisov would possibly alter the complexion of Roscosmos or the company’s relationship with its International Space Station companions, however given Russia’s waning curiosity in area and ongoing give attention to the battle in Ukraine, it’s a secure wager that issues aren’t going to vary too dramatically.

Rogozin’s departure is undoubtably a reduction for NASA and different Roscosmos companions, as his four-year tenure as director common of Roscosmos was fiery and turbulent. Rogozin not often hesitated to lash out publicly when issues rubbed him the mistaken method—and there was no scarcity of issues that bought him agitated.

Back in 2014, when nonetheless deputy prime minister of Russia, Rogozin responded to newly imposed U.S. sanctions by saying NASA will soon require trampolines to ship its astronauts to the ISS (NASA was depending on Russia for crewed entry to area on the time). As Roscosmos chief, he as soon as once more railed in opposition to sanctions whereas frequently threatening to desert the area station. Consistently crass, Rogozin mentioned that people who impose sanctions against Russia should be checked for Alzheimer’s and that Russia’s departure from the ISS would consequence within the area station making an uncontrolled deorbit.

Last yr, an nameless high-ranking official within the Russian area business blamed a “mentally unstable” NASA astronaut for drilling a gap in a Soyuz capsule docked to the ISS, in an unfounded accusation that smacked of Rogozin’s involvement. Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Roscosmos put out a fabricated video displaying cosmonauts coming into right into a module and leaving the ISS for good, elevating fears that Roscosmos would abandon NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei in low Earth orbit. And as early as this week, Rogozin threatened to withhold entry to Europe’s new ISS robotic arm—a response to the European Space Agency terminating its relationship with Roscosmos on the ExoMars mission.

You get the image. But regardless of these bleak episodes, Rogozin’s histrionics by no means actually amounted to a lot. “Rogozin’s bluster was rarely translated into actual practical action,” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist on the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, wrote to me in an e mail. “But it did contribute a sense of Trumpian instability to the Russian space effort, and distracted space workers are not a good thing for safety.” Indeed, it was beneath Rogozin’s tenure that one of the crucial critical incidents within the 25-year historical past of the ISS befell. In August 2021, a newly docked Russian module inadvertently fired its thrusters, inflicting the area station to backflip uncontrolled.

Rogozin couldn’t act on his threats or do something to revamp Russia’s deteriorating area program on account of Russian President Vladimir Putin probably not caring that a lot about area exploration. Putin slashed Russia’s space budgets and as a substitute prioritized his build-up of Russia’s military. As an alternative choice to constructing cool issues in area, Russia modified its focus to destroying issues in area, as witnessed by the nation’s reckless anti-satellite weapons check in November of final yr.

The new man, Yury Borisov, will probably face the identical challenges as his predecessor. How he’ll strategy them stays to be seen.

Keith Cowing, editor of NASAWatch.com and a former rocket scientist at NASA, doesn’t know if Borisov will probably be any higher than Rogozin, however he mentioned the brand new area chief “needs to fall back to basic problems” and cope with the “cash-strapped Roscosmos,” he informed me over the cellphone. Cowing mentioned the departure of Rogozin might signify a very good factor for Roscosmos, as his continuous antics “were causing people to step away.” His recommendation to Borisov is to “defer to people who are doing the work and actually running the place,” as a result of the one factor that Roscosmos most wants proper now could be “institutional stability.”

That Roscosmos will begin to exhibit indicators of optimistic change is feasible, even whether it is unlikely. A newly brokered agreement between the U.S. and Russia for a crew swap on upcoming flights of SpaceX Crew Dragon and Russia’s Soyuz probably has nothing to do with the firing of Rogozin, in line with Cowing, however he mentioned there’s something that Borisov might do in good religion: return OneWeb’s satellites. Roscosmos was purported to launch 36 of OneWeb’s web satellites in March but is instead holding them hostage. The London-based OneWeb is presently looking for to construct an web constellation in low Earth orbit, although one smaller than SpaceX’s Starlink. Returning the satellites to OneWeb “is an easy thing that Borisov can do,” Cowing informed me, and it might “restore confidence in Roscosmos” or be a “positive sign that things might change.”

McDowell doesn’t count on Russian area coverage to vary, however he hopes will probably be much less noisy. Borisov, given his army and protection background, will probably “support Putin’s Ukraine invasion just as much as Rogozin, but perhaps he won’t push that support in NASA’s face quite as much,” he mentioned.

Speaking of NASA, I reached out to the area company for touch upon Rogozin’s departure however have but to listen to again. I requested Cowing how NASA ought to reply.

“Don’t gloat,” he replied.