Russian Space Junk Hit a Chinese Satellite in March, Evidence Suggests

The mysterious breakdown of the Yunhai 1-02 satellite tv for pc in March has seemingly been solved. The discarded remnants of an previous Russian rocket seem to have smashed into the Chinese satellite tv for pc, in what’s an ominous signal of issues to come back in our more and more cluttered low Earth orbit.

On March 22, 2021, the 18th Space Control Squadron of the U.S. Space Force printed a shocking tweet asserting the breakup of Yunhai 1-02—a Chinese army satellite tv for pc launched in September 2019. The breakup had occurred 4 days earlier, and it wasn’t instantly clear as to why this satellite tv for pc, at lower than two years previous, ought to out of the blue expertise such a calamitous malfunction. In its tweet, the Space Force squadron stated its “analysis is ongoing” and that it will observe the 21 newly created items of particles.

This type of factor just isn’t with out precedent. Satellites do get wrecked in orbit, although it occurs very hardly ever. Back in 2016, for instance, Japan’s Hitomi satellite tv for pc spun uncontrolled owing to human errors and crummy software program; the satellite tv for pc spun wildly uncontrolled, inflicting it to interrupt up. Frighteningly, the same state of affairs may’ve performed out on the International Space Station a couple of weeks in the past, when Russia’s Nauka module started to hearth its thrusters shortly after docking.

Another risk is that the Yunhai 1-02 satellite tv for pc was intentionally shot down. China did exactly this in 2007 with an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, taking pictures down a defunct climate satellite tv for pc. The incident created a whole bunch of items of particles and appreciable worldwide angst. India did the same factor in 2019—an incident that likewise resulted in a harmful particles discipline in low Earth orbit.

A collision with house junk may clarify the demise of Yunhai 1-02, and once more, a precedent additionally exists for this type of state of affairs. In 2009, the Iridium 33 communications satellite tv for pc smashed into Kosmos-2251, a defunct Russian army communications satellite tv for pc. NASA described the incident as being the “most severe accidental fragmentation on record,” because the collision produced greater than 1,800 items of particles bigger than 4 inches (10 cm).

Some artful sleuthing from Jonathan McDowell, a researcher at Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, suggests one thing related occurred to Yunhai 1-02, through which a piece of house junk slammed into the Chinese satellite tv for pc. While scanning by way of the Space-Track.org catalog (which comprises knowledge from the 18th Space Control Squadron), McDowell observed an odd be aware about orbital particles object 1996-051Q (48078). The particles object was described as having “collided with a satellite.”

“This is a new kind of comment entry—haven’t seen such a comment for any other satellites before,” wrote McDowell in a tweet printed on Sunday, August 15. Diving deeper, the astrophysicist recognized the particles object as being a remnant of a Russian Zenit-2 rocket, which delivered the Tselina-2 electronic intelligence satellite to orbit in 1996.

An apparent candidate for the affected satellite tv for pc was Yunhai-1-02, which turned out to be the case. A fast evaluation of the information confirmed that Yunhai 1-02 and the Russian house junk handed to inside 0.6 miles (1 km) of one another on March 18, and “exactly when 18SPCS reports Yunhai broke up,” McDowell tweeted. To which he added: “37 debris objects have been cataloged so far from the breakup—there are likely to be more.” He describes the incident because the “first major confirmed orbital collision in a decade,” referencing the aforementioned smash-up in 2009. Despite the collision, Yunhai 1-02, although not in use, continues to be making orbital changes, which suggests the collision wasn’t fully catastrophic, said McDowell.

I reached out to McDowell to study extra concerning the offending Russian house junk, the character of the collision, and what ought to occur subsequent.

The dimension of particles object 48078 just isn’t recognized, nevertheless it’s seemingly someplace from 2 to 12 inches (5 to 30 centimeters) huge, McDowell stated. He defined that in-space collision involving a small object of this dimension will injury a satellite tv for pc, “but not destroy it completely.” Small objects are more and more showing in orbit, “so we expect more incidents like this, and indeed we have been seeing about one a year.”

I’ve coated some close-calls within the final a number of years, together with an incident involving two defunct satellites: the joint NASA-Netherlands Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) and the the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory’s GGSE-4 satellite tv for pc, which launched within the late Nineteen Sixties. And again in June, an errant chunk of house junk pierced a gap in Canadarm2, a robotic arm at present in service on the ISS.

The house junk drawback “is real,” stated McDowell, “and as the number of satellites increases we should expect many more like this as well as increasing numbers of the rarer but more serious debris events.” The Space Force will proceed to watch and catalog the particles that got here from this occasion, however McDowell says we could by no means get official affirmation of this obvious collision. As for Yunhai 1-02’s sudden actions, “it’s possible that it is just tracking mistakes,” he stated.

An uncomfortable quantity of house junk circles Earth. Estimates from the European Space Agency suggest 900,000 objects from 0.4 to 4 inches (1 to 10 cm) and 34,000 objects bigger than 4 inches (10 cm) are at present in Earth orbit.

A serious concern is that particles may set off a Kessler Syndrome, which is akin to a snowball that more and more will get larger because it tumbles down a preserve. Upsettingly, the particles attributable to this newest collision may go on hit different objects in house, leading to an excellent bigger particles discipline. A hypothetical cascade may conceivably destroy troves of satellites, which might be very dangerous and make low Earth orbit inaccessible. The time has come for us to raised regulate house and clear up our junk.