This previous January, mentioned that the higher stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket would collide with the Moon someday in early March. As you would possibly count on, the prediction set off a flurry of , a lot of it essential of Elon Musk and his non-public area agency. After all, the occasion can be a uncommon misstep for SpaceX.

But it seems Elon and firm usually are not about to lose face. Instead, it’s extra doubtless that destiny will befall China. That’s as a result of Gray now says he made a mistake in his preliminary identification of a chunk of area particles he and different astronomers dubbed WE0913A in 2015.

When Gray and his colleagues first noticed the article, a number of clues led them to imagine it was the second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that carried the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s satellite tv for pc into deep orbit that very same yr. The object’s identification would have most likely gone unreported in mainstream media if astronomers didn’t subsequently uncover it was about to collide with the Moon.

“Back in 2015, I (mis)identified this object as 2015-007B, the second stage of the DSCOVR spacecraft,” Gray mentioned in a he revealed on Saturday that was noticed . “I had pretty good circumstantial evidence for the identification, but nothing conclusive,” Gray added. “That was not at all unusual. Identifications of high-flying space junk often require a bit of detective work, and sometimes, we never do figure out the ID for a bit of space junk.”

We could have by no means recognized the precise identification of the particles if not for NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory engineer . He contacted Gray on Saturday to ask in regards to the identification. According to Giorgini, NASA’s Horizons system, a that may estimate the situation and orbit of virtually half one million celestial our bodies in our photo voltaic system, confirmed that the DSCOVR spacecraft’s trajectory didn’t take it near the Moon. As such, it will be uncommon if its second stage have been to stray astray then and hit the satellite tv for pc. Giorgini’s e-mail prompted Gray to reexamine the info he used to make the preliminary identification.

Gray now says he’s fairly sure the rocket that’s about to collide with the moon belongs to China. In October 2014, the nation’s area company launched its Chang’e 5-T1 mission on a Long March 3C rocket. After reconstructing the possible trajectory of that mission, he discovered that the Long March 3C is the most effective match for the thriller object that’s about to hit Earth’s pure satellite tv for pc. “Running the orbit back to launch for the Chinese spacecraft makes ample sense,” he informed . “It winds up with an orbit that goes past the Moon at the right time after launch.”

Gray went on to inform The Verge that episodes like this underline the necessity for extra info on rockets boosters that journey into deep area. “The only folks that I know of who pay attention to these old rocket boosters are the asteroid tracking community,” he informed the outlet. “This sort of thing would be considerably easier if the folks who launch spacecraft — if there was some regulatory environment where they had to report something.”