Amazon is on monitor to overhaul Walmart as the biggest U.S. retailer in 2022, in line with JPMorgan analysis launched Friday.

Amazon’s U.S. retail enterprise is the “fastest growing at scale,” in line with the corporate’s analysts. Between 2014 and 2020, Amazon’s U.S. gross merchandise quantity (GMV) — a carefully watched business metric used to measure the whole worth of products bought over a sure time interval — has grown “significantly faster” than each U.S. adjusted retail gross sales and U.S. e-commerce, the analysts mentioned.

Neither Amazon nor Walmart get away GMV of their quarterly earnings outcomes, however JPMorgan estimates Amazon’s GMV is rising quicker than its largest retail competitor. JPMorgan analysts mentioned Amazon’s GMV in 2020 climbed 41% year-over-year to $316 billion, whereas Walmart’s GMV is estimated to have grown 10% year-over-year to $439 billion in 2020.

“Based on current estimates, we believe Amazon could surpass Walmart to become the largest U.S. retailer in 2022,” J.P. Morgan analysts Christopher Horvers and Doug Anmuth wrote Friday.

Horvers and Anmuth highlighted a couple of elements they consider are driving Amazon’s top-line development, together with an enlargement into “large and under-penetrated categories” like grocery and attire, sturdy development of third-party vendor gross sales and the “the Prime flywheel.” Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos mentioned in April the corporate now has more than 200 million Prime subscribers, up from 150 million originally of 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic quickly accelerated the adoption of e-commerce and cemented Amazon’s dominance in the retail space. Stuck-at-home shoppers turned to Amazon for a plethora of products starting from bathroom paper to exercise gear. They additionally relied on Amazon for providers they won’t have in any other case thought of, equivalent to on-line grocery supply.

Amazon’s pandemic-fueled gross sales surge has helped it develop its slice of the e-commerce market. JPMorgan estimates Amazon expanded its share of the U.S. e-commerce market to 39% in 2020, up from 24% in 2014.

The accelerated adoption of e-commerce has additionally supplied a raise to different areas of Amazon’s enterprise.

Amazon is on monitor to “become one of the largest delivery companies” within the U.S., analysts at Bank of America wrote in analysis revealed on Tuesday.

Amazon is estimated to ship 7 billion packages in 2021, surpassing the roughly 6 billion packages UPS is predicted to ship within the U.S. this yr, the analysts wrote, citing figures from MWPVL International, a provide chain and logistics consulting agency.

In latest years, Amazon has quietly constructed a transport operation that rivals the likes of UPS, FedEx and USPS. It maintains an ever-increasing community of warehouses and last-mile supply stations, and a sprawling logistics operation with airplanes, vans and vans.

This has allowed Amazon to ship most of its own orders. Amazon presently delivers packages for other businesses in the U.K. and will sooner or later develop that service to the U.S.

MWPVL estimates Amazon dealt with about 5 billion of the 7.35 billion packages it shipped in 2020. UPS and USPS dealt with the opposite 1.25 billion and 1.1 billion, respectively, in line with Bank of America analysts.