Unlucky Delays Mean ISS Astronauts Could Return to Earth Before Their Replacements Arrive

The International Space Station might be emptier than standard subsequent week, ought to NASA resolve to ship 4 astronauts house previous to the arrival of the SpaceX Crew-3 mission.

I hope astronauts are a affected person bunch, as a result of it’s taking some time for the SpaceX Crew-3 mission to get off the bottom. Launch of the model new Endurance Crew Dragon capsule was purported to occur on October 31, however ongoing climate issues and a minor medical difficulty involving a crewmember has resulted in a sequence of delays. Meanwhile, again on the orbital ranch often called the International Space Station, the Crew-2 crew is getting ready to return house. The lingering query proper now could be, will Crew-3 launch earlier than or after Crew-2 says au revoir to the ISS?

“These are dynamic and complex decisions that change day by day,” Steve Stich, supervisor of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, stated in a statement. “The weather in November can be especially challenging, so our goal is to move forward on the plan with the highest probability of mission assurance and crew safety.”

Allow me to current to you the state of affairs because it exists proper now.

Crew-2, consisting of NASA astronauts Shane Kimbrough and Megan McArthur, JAXA astronaut Akihiko Hoshide, and ESA astronaut Thomas Pesquet, may go away the ISS as early at 1:05 p.m. EDT on Sunday, November 7. They may additionally go away the following day, ought to the state of affairs warrant. Departure of Crew-2 depends on several factors, together with the readiness of the Crew Dragon capsule and restoration groups, together with favorable climate and ocean situations (parachute-assisted splashdown is anticipated off the Florida coast).

Should Crew-2 go away earlier than Crew-3 arrives, that would depart simply three Expedition 66 crew members aboard the ISS: Roscosmos cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov and NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei. If Crew-2 can’t go away the ISS on both Sunday or Monday (for no matter motive), that will set the stage for the launch of Crew-3 on Monday, November 8, at 9:51 p.m. EDT.

A launch window for Crew-3 exists for November 6 and seven, however NASA and SpaceX have chosen to forgo these dates on account of anticipated poor climate. Specific issues must do with excessive winds on the launch pad, the presence of cumulus clouds, threat of lightning, and unfavorable situations down vary ought to an in-flight abort be vital.

Frustratingly, climate predictions for November 8 additionally don’t look good. At the identical time, NASA continues to be monitoring that minor (and undisclosed) medical difficulty involving one of many Crew-3 astronauts. The Crew-3 crew consists of NASA astronauts Raja Chari, Tom Marshburn, and Kayla Barron, and ESA astronaut Matthias Maurer.

“Mission teams will make a final decision on whether to prioritize Crew-3’s launch or Crew-2’s return in the coming days based on the likelihood of favorable conditions for a Crew Dragon splashdown or Crew Dragon launch,” NASA says. “NASA and SpaceX also are reviewing the time needed between launch or return operations.

Crew-2 launched on April 23 and arrived at the ISS the following day. Their Crew Dragon, Endeavour, has been in space for 195 days. That’s significant, because NASA has a requirement stating that the SpaceX capsule must be capable of staying in orbit for 210 days. “Additional analysis could allow the spacecraft to remain in orbit for longer, if necessary,” in accordance with NASA.

Eventually—we predict—the Crew-3 mission will launch. Once in area, the crew can sit again and chill out, and even use the bathrooms with reckless abandon. For you see, Endurance has been fitted with upgraded bathrooms, which suggests the crew doesn’t have to fret about spilling their urine far and wide. The identical can’t be stated for the Crew-2 astronauts, as Endeavor’s bathroom continues to be within the outdated configuration. Thankfully that shouldn’t pose an issue given the short journey house.